The Lonely Trader

#CL_F has broken out, as anticipated, but heading into oversold territory

In Chartwork on October 7, 2015 at 16:25

CL_F 10-7-2015 7-09-24 PMEdit: The title of this post should say “overbought territory”. Obviously, it’s not heading into oversold territory!

These past few days have performed as expected. I laid it out in the October 5 tweet here: Notice how resistance came just above the EIA estimate and below the key $50 figure. I think the head fake is in effect.

Not sure how long prices will continue to rise. If crude does achieve the $50-$55 range, I’m not sure how long it can sustain such levels. I still believe another leg down is coming but will be reading up on forecasts of the supply/demand picture. The driving factors of the fall in crude oil prices are still largely present in the global economy, as well as in the United States.

Will look for weekly bear call spreads in crude via USO if I see a pop above $50. I’ll definitely want to define my risk on these trades.

#SPX probably range bound 2075 to 1900 next week or two

In Chartwork on October 7, 2015 at 16:04

ES_F 10-7-2015 6-45-34 PM

I expect mixed signals to continue for SPX and the broader market. Looking out for opportunities to sell puts over the next 8 trading days. Extensions are possible, so could sell calls out to 2100 and puts out to 1850, if the premium is there. If I see a quick pop on Thurs, Fri, Mon or Tue up to 2020-2025 or so I will sell closer to the money for better R:R.

Watchlists for the weeklies…and, Warren Buffett is an Asshole! #SP500 #SPY #ES_F #SPX

In Watchlists on September 13, 2015 at 19:05

Note: Some of these instruments do not trade in weekly options.

A few more opportunities this week than last to catch some range contractions. The broader market seems indecisive, given prevailing macro events. What I can’t understand is the dissonance between the odds of a rate hike and what media are reporting. The chance of a hike was at a bit less than 30% (as of the Friday close), yet there are headlines everywhere about traders and investors being nervous over a rate hike. One article I read on Friday quoted an analyst’s supposition that Yellen and Co. could re-introduce QE, framing the narrative as an authoritative monetary policy option. Bloomberg click-bait. Unbelievable, really. In any case, if the Fed doesn’t raise rates now, the election may delay action longer than most currently expect.

Still fuming over an interview in which Warren Buffett said we could ship unskilled people off to Afghanistan. That really got to me. Here is an American icon perpetuating the myth that military folk are stupid and unskilled today…and in a casual sort of way suggesting that we can send them off to die because the market doesn’t value them as much as other folk. Of course if you ask him, he will say that wasn’t what he meant — but that is the f*ing reality and he needs to be held accountable for it.

He clearly has no clue about the real economic system that supports his own livelihood. None at all. I’m sure he feels justified in his own mind. There are *some* unskilled people everywhere and someone has to wash the dishes and trim the hedge. Having said that, most service members who deploy are actually above average, effectively trained, and technically skilled — because a technologically advanced military requires it. (Further evidence that Buffett is completely out of touch with reality.) This distracts from my real point, however. Morally, Buffett is a black hole. And so is the media. Nobody is talking about it. Nothing was taken out of context. This privileged, arrogant a*hole, with his “awe shucks I’m just a humble man from Nebraska” patois, actually said it. Don’t be fooled. He’s a crypto-fascist — the sort of feller that Marines like to take out back and beat the s*it out of.

Listen for yourself. About seven minutes and twenty seconds in. The Bloomberg interviewer didn’t even flinch. Seems all the Twitter trading and finance gurus agree, which is why they aren’t saying anything. Screw these elitist jerks. These people are not Americans. They do not deserve the free society that supports their businesses, much less an all-volunteer, professional military that defends them from Tyranny. This is not my country anymore. If you can stomach it, watch the interview here:

As for the markets — going to wait until Monday and possibly Tuesday, per the usual, to see what opportunities present themselves. The SPX and Crude charts are still valid in my opinion.

EquitiesEquities 9-13-2015 8-44-18 AM

ETFs 9-13-2015 8-44-34 AM


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