This contract is insanely parabolic. I don’t know much about ags, but soybean meal looks ripe for a pullback. Stats say only a 21% chance of an expansionary range extreme — better odds of a top somewhere between 415 and 419. The estimated monthly extreme for May, based on the April close, is 423.
I’m not a big fan of Fox News, but I am a big fan of Wall Street Week. The guest of the show was Jamie Dinan, founder and CEO of York Capital Management. This guy is phenomenally brilliant — his brilliance strikes me as very understated, which pegs him on the Space Balls scale as… Read More If you’re “world class” in a world class world, you’re just average
Not very sexy or prescient — may go up to $50, may go down to $26.50. Out of 396 events, there are 83 pattern occurrences with a 68% chance of an expansion and a 12% chance of a duplicate range. Currently, CL is resting just above the L of the LVN. This is a monthly… Read More CL guesstimate for April 2016
Watchlist posted –>> here. Stats say that the ranges of most instruments will expand this week. Notable among futures where the stats indicate a contraction: the USD, Cad, euro, coffee, gasoline, and nat gas… weaker indications for cocoa and corn. S&P has busted the six month RTL everyone was watching. Lots of sector ETFs were… Read More Week of 13 March: Mitigation
A lot of chatter about refinery maintenance cycles, rig counts, etc. This is useless information for trading crude oil in the current context. I could spend a few hours writing about why, and why most of the Twitterati who mention these “indicators” are completely winging it, having done nothing in the way of rigorous research… Read More CL monthly and weekly guesstimates
Last week I thought that the SP500 looked constructive and was expecting demand to lift the market. I was able to capitalize on that view, currently holding a long trade from 1972 (missed my profit objective by a couple of ticks (2008.00) on Friday. The trade is not enough to balance the negative PnL of… Read More ES monthly and weekly guesstimates
After last month’s clumsy attempt, I noticed today that euro has traded back into a familiar range. Ultimately, I’m on the “short euro” bandwagon, but I think that a few things have to play out for the move to be more directional than February…meaning a close that is either convincingly above or below the open.… Read More Euro trades back into a familiar range